Select your best iPhone 3GS 32GB plan…

Telco war

Peace is disrupted yesterday when all 3 telcos are selling iPhone. OC workbench is the first in Singapore to report live on the iPhone war with a nice chart breaking down the various plans offered by the 3 telcos. If you follow their twitter, you can be updated on last minute surprises offered by M1 and Starhub to sweeten their offerings. Many Singaporeans are queuing up to get their iPhone because monkeys see, monkeys do (as they said in the army). If you are one of them, do you know what plan is suitable for yourself? Or you just sign the cheapest plan to get your dream iPhone?

Factors to consider

I have earlier blogged on some concerns before you upgrade your phone or plan. Perhaps it is good for you to read it before you run down to queue up. It is important that you are sure that you NEED a iPhone before you read further on the plans offered. Many claimed that marketing department in Apple is doing a great job in pushing you a product that you don't need. So don't jump on it if you only make voice calls and send SMSs. It is trendy to carry the latest model 3GS but you look stupid if you have no applications using the data plan. Yes, all iPhone plans come with minimum 12 GB of data plan which is great if you use GPS, MSN, Email, Surf web, Twitter, Internet radio, YouTube, Facebook and watch internet TV. 12GB is a lot of data and most users are unlikely to exceed this quota in a month. Thus, we will not be considering data transfer in our tabulation.

I would like to introduce a term known as the total cost of ownership (TCO) in our evaluation. TCO includes the monthly subscription (voice and data) you are paying and the cost of the phone. It is only fair to compare different plans as there is an amount to pay for the price of the phone for different plans. Below is an example of the Singtel iPhone plan for 3GS 32GB.

iPhone 3GS 32GB		Lite		Value	Plus	Premium
Monthly Fees (S$)		39.00		55.99	95.00	204.99
Extra cost for phone (S$)		658.00		398.00	98.00	0.00
TCO for 2 yrs contract (S$)		1,594.00		1,741.76	2,378.00	4,919.76

After you confirm iPhone is suitable for you, you should consider how many calls you make a month because this is one of the determining factor in various plans. If you are a light user, a 100 minute/month plan may be suitable for you. If you are a heavy user, you should consider the unlimited plan. It may be a good time to take out your mobile bills for the past year and calculate how many minutes you use per month. With this, let's begin to search the best plan for iPhone 3GS 32GB.

Value Plans (<300 minutes/month)

As the name suggests, this plan is suitable for consumer with a budget or makes only few calls. If you choose this plan and use more than 300 minutes, you will be paying a dear premium. So if you use 350 min/month, it is strong advised to select the next higher plan. Based on TCO on the plans offered by telco, the table is derived.

TCO	M-Value	M-Lite	ST-Lite	ST-Value	SH-100	SH-300
50	$ 1,522.00	$ 1,742.00	$ 1,594.00	$ 1,741.76	$ 1,580.00	$ 1,810.00
100	$ 1,522.00	$ 1,742.00	$ 1,594.00	$ 1,741.76	$ 1,580.00	$ 1,810.00
150	$ 1,714.60	$ 1,742.00	$ 1,786.60	$ 1,741.76	$ 1,772.60	$ 1,810.00
200	$ 1,907.20	$ 1,742.00	$ 1,979.20	$ 1,741.76	$ 1,965.20	$ 1,810.00
250	$ 2,099.80	$ 1,742.00	$ 2,171.80	$ 1,934.36	$ 2,157.80	$ 1,810.00
300	$ 2,292.40	$ 1,742.00	$ 2,364.40	$ 2,126.96	$ 2,350.40	$ 1,810.00

This above picture shows the TCO of the value plans. The lower the TCO, you pay lower. So with the min/mth value in the x-axis, move vertically up and the first line you touch is the best plan you should get. From the graph, you should get M-Lite plan if you using an average of 250 minutes/month. Note that the TCO increases drastically if you exceed the voice minutes in your plan.

Premium Plans (>300 minutes/mth)

Next, we shall consider the premium plans which range from 450 to unlimited minutes/month. The following table is derived.

	M-Extreme	M-Unlimited	ST-Plus	ST-Premium	SH-700	SH-Unlimited
450	$ 2,450.00	$ 4,752.00	$ 2,378.00	$ 4,919.76	$ 2,460.00	$ 4,920.00
500	$ 2,450.00	$ 4,752.00	$ 2,378.00	$ 4,919.76	$ 2,460.00	$ 4,920.00
700	$ 2,450.00	$ 4,752.00	$ 3,148.40	$ 4,919.76	$ 2,460.00	$ 4,920.00
800	$ 2,835.20	$ 4,752.00	$ 3,533.60	$ 4,919.76	$ 2,845.20	$ 4,920.00
900	$ 3,220.40	$ 4,752.00	$ 3,918.80	$ 4,919.76	$ 3,230.40	$ 4,920.00
1000	$ 3,605.60	$ 4,752.00	$ 4,304.00	$ 4,919.76	$ 3,615.60	$ 4,920.00
1500	$ 5,531.60	$ 4,752.00	$ 6,230.00	$ 4,919.76	$ 5,541.60	$ 4,920.00

With the graph, we can see the TCO for such plan has a minimum of S$2,378. So you should be signing for either M-Extreme or SH-700 if you are using 800 minutes/month.

Limitations

There are limitations in this method which should be factored in. Different telcos offer different candies to sweeten the products. M1 has Take-3 plan, Starhub has free TV channels while Singtel has other plans with MIO bundling. This analysis only consider iPhone 3GS 32GB and not 3G 8GB and 3GS 16GB.

Conclusions

To assist you in selecting the plan, the table below will help you in selecting your plan. You will also be able to know your damage in owning a iPhone 3GS 32GB.

mins/mth	Lowest TCO	Plan
50	$ 1,522.00	M-Value
100	$ 1,522.00	M-Value
150	$ 1,714.60	M-Value
200	$ 1,741.76	ST-Value
250	$ 1,742.00	M-Lite
300	$ 1,742.00	M-Lite
450	$ 2,319.80	M-Lite
500	$ 2,378.00	ST-Plus
700	$ 2,450.00	M-Extreme
800	$ 2,835.20	M-Extreme
900	$ 3,220.40	M-Extreme
1000	$ 3,605.60	M-Extreme
1500	$ 4,752.00	M-Unlimited

Looking forward, I predict that with iPhone setting the precedence, data plan will be more affordable to the masses and Singaporeans will be able to try and apply applications in their daily life. After all, Singapore is a small island and well connected wirelessly. We should be able to surf internet while on the move. Having said that, prices will only get lower so I see that there is no need to rush and get a iPhone. Spend some time in reading this blog and understand your needs is better than getting a white elephant which will eventually pass down to your children or your parents when you are sick of this "hi-tech" toy. If election deserves one cooling off day, so do you.

Should I buy CPF Life?

WHAT IS CPF LIFE?

Singapore is not a welfare state and the government has no obligation to take care of your retirement and golden years after your retirement. The abolishment of the pension scheme (inherited from the British Colonial days) and the introduction of the CPF scheme simply tell Singaporeans that they must not depend on government's mercy if you are old and poor. Around 15 years ago, a few insurance companies introduce annuities policies for the retirees and many benefitted from the scheme with monthly payout of a small amount of money till they die. Due to the lack of financial acumen, those who did not take up this offer suffered now as they see their savings dry up after 20 years in CPF retirement or fixed savings accounts. The recent years of low interest rate on fixed deposits at 1% due to the turmoil worsens their woes. Inflation of prices on daily necessities shrinks their pool of retirement funds.

CPF LIFE aims to bridge the gap and offers this retirement vehicle in view of the increasing pool of retirees plunging into financial difficulties. CPF LIFE is definitely better than the Minimum Sum Scheme (MSS) which only last 20 years. In fact, it is replacing MMS and applies to those who are born after 1957 and have at least S$40k in the retirement account (RA). However, it arrives 15 years (compared to the private sector) too late and those who are already in trouble will not enjoy as much as their money has depleted over the years in fixed deposits. Those who are below 55 years will definitely benefit from this scheme. 30,000 residents (reported by TODAY) flooded to CPF and rushed to place over S$1.26 billion to buy CPF LIFE. But is this a good scheme? Is it suitable for you? Why 670,000 Singaporeans/PRs are not responding to this 2-month old call?

POSSIBLE REASONS FOR DELAY

Since 15 years ago, private firms are soliciting annuities policies and 71,000 are in force as of 2Q 2009. This tells us only 90% of residents are not aware about these policies, fail to see any advantages offered by these policies or cannot afford them. Indeed, there are 2 barriers of entry for these policies - a minimum sum (tens of thousands) is required and there is a waiting time (5 years) to collect the first payout. After working for many years and retire at 55, they can finally touch and feel their retirement money in the CPF. It is unbearable to part their hard earned money and tell them to wait 5 more years. Many choose to spend on their children or go for tours to see the world.

CPF LIFE eliminates at least 1 barrier for many concerned. You can buy any amount of annuities and those who are born before 1947 can get the first payout in less than 5 years. So we see a reshuffle of cards in the field of annuities and I hope private sectors will introduce better schemes soon. More offers and products in markets are always good for consumers. The promotion of such policies also benefits all residents with CPF Board pumping in more money to introduce what is the concept of "annuity" to many residents.

However, some just cannot afford to buy these policies as they are the sole income earner in the family. Sadly, many can afford but are not financial savvy to buy them. After all, to these folks, money is a sensitive topic and this quiet generation believes in keeping their money in trustworthy banks as fixed deposits over unit trusts, shares or other investment instruments. They fail to realize that their money suffer from inflation and depreciation over time. Let me tell you why.

CONCEPT OF PERPETUITY

Perpetuity (aka perpetual annuity or infinite annuity) refers to annuity that pays forever. "Forever" is a strong concept because it implies no time limit. As long as you are alive, you will receive monthly income from CPF LIFE based on a one-time fixed amount you buy previously. The only challenge for you is to stay alive and outlive others. This promises continuous income over fixed deposits concept. An example will better illustrate the concept of perpetuity.

Upon retirement, you wish to place S$10k in a bank which promises 2.5% yearly fixed deposit interests (current fixed deposit interests is 0.9% for S$30k). You wish to withdraw S$1k (at the beginning of every year) from the fund as yearly expenses. Using simple financial formula, you will exhaust S$10k in 11.32 years. For perpetuity, the present value (PV) for S$1k yearly withdrawal at 2.5% interests is S$40k. This is 4 times more the amount in an ideal condition. This simply implies that if you put S$40k in a bank which promises yearly 2.5% interests, you can collect S$1k forever or until you die, whichever is shorter. So you must live longer than 11.32 years to benefit from the perpetuity scheme. Eventually, the question to ask is not which scheme benefits you more how to live healthier and longer.

THE CPF LIFE'S OFFER

In the offer, there are 4 plans to choose from. The majority chose to buy the LIFE PLUS PLAN while one-third signed up for the LIFE BALANCED PLAN. The differences lie in the payouts to beneficiaries and a compromise between waiting time and premiums. Each has its own merits. The other 2 extreme plans are the LIFE BASIC PLAN and LIFE INCOME PLAN which promises the lowest and highest monthly payout respectively. The former is unattractive to many while the latter targets unmarried individuals with no friends, siblings and children. Interestingly, the difference in amount between the payout is insignificant for small amount (<S$67k) and we are talking about differences of maximum S$60/month for a maximum payout of S$440.

LIFE-BONUS (aka L-Bonus) is thrown in to encourage those born before 1963 to take the plunge. Those qualified will enjoy up to S$4k in bonus payouts if they join before a specific date.

AN ILLUSTRATION

Nothing beats an illustration. For the benefit of those above 62 years old and still hesitating about buying CPF LIFE, I shall offer you alternatives in choosing whether you should buy CPF LIFE.

You are a Singaporean male born in 1 Jun 1947. You have missed your chance to buy the annuity policy when you are 55 years old when you withdrew your CPF account 7 years ago. You do not qualify for L-Bonus as your Annual Value of Property (AV) is more than S$11k. You are interested in the LIFE PLUS PLAN and you found out that your monthly payout after you join LIFE is between S$56 to S$60. So is this plan better than depositing S$10k in the bank which promises 2.5% yearly interests without fail?

SCENARIO 1: FIXED DEPOSIT

Using financial formula to calculate N (periods), we derive that it takes 18.5802 years to exhaust your full savings. This means you will be broke in Jul 2027 if you withdraw S$56 monthly from the bank.

SCENARIO 2: CPF LIFE PLUS PLAN

If you choose LIFE PLUS, you will collect S$56 monthly till you die. To win over scenario 1, you need to stay alive after Jul 2007 which is very possible given that you are forecast to live till 2039 according to the statistic provided by the World Bank for Singaporeans. If things go according to plan, you will enjoy 12 more years of annuity over scenario 1. Therefore, it is not too late to jump into it now.

SCENARIO 3: OTHER INVESTMENT?

So what is the interest rate which can beat Scenario 2? Using financial analysis on perpetuity, if the investment vehicle can offer more than 7.2% of annual interests, it is a better choice over LIFE PLUS PLAN. In addition, this investment must continue to produce > 7.2% of annual dividends without fail forever.

CONCLUSIONS

It is encouraging to see that the government is stepping in to assist Singaporeans in their retirement planning. However, the financial burden of meeting the annuity payouts will lie in the continuing efforts of making money from the sum collected from the retirees. In view of the ever changing landscape of the financial worlds, it will be a challenge to meet up with the promises if global recession or hyper inflation hits Singapore. Having said that, I welcome any request to do the above 3 scenarios for you if you can provide the following details:

1. Date of Birth;
   
2. Desired amount to invest in CPF PLAN; and
   
3. The expected monthly annuity.
   

The above are simple financial analysis for your consideration only. We hold no responsibility if the data we provide are erred or misinterpreted.